stars vs ftp

I just tried to do a comparison, and it's pretty complex and requires a large number of assumptions, particularly because Stars awards different numbers of FPPs/ hand depending upon what level micro players are playing at, and because FTP's Happy Hours significantly impact the value of points earned. However, the first conclusion is that, in general, Silver and Gold on FTP are going to be much quicker to attain, and easier to maintain, than on Stars.

I've assumed for the purposes of the below that (1) Stars points are earned at 6/$1 (NL25 FR) and (2) that we're looking at the 100 day rolling average on FTP (it won't be possible to use 30 day averages to keep a status for very long without having a 100 day average well over the relevant threshold, although there will be a few strange effects for the first few weeks after reopening). I've treated a month as 30 days for the purposes of comparison.

Stars
Silverstar: 750 points/ month => $125 rake
Goldstar: 3000 points/ month => $500 rake
Platinumstar: 7500 points/ month => $1250 rake
Supernova: 100k points/year => $1390 rake (averaged over 12 months)

FTP
Silver: 750 points/ month => $75 rake
Gold: 1500 points/ month => $150 rake
Platinum: 3000 points/ month => $300 rake
Diamond: 7500 points/ month => $750 rake

Effectively, diamond on FTP is below Platinumstar on Stars. There is no equivalent to SN or SNE. Silver on FTP is below any VIP level on Stars. The gap would be narrowed a bit for NL10 players, who earn 7 FPPs/$1 rather than 6, but Silver would still be easier to attain than Silverstar, and Platinum would still be easier to attain than Goldstar.

[Waits for people to spot calculation errors]

Okay, next step. Compare the two structures. Again, have assumed cash player throughout, and have used the best case scenario taken from Stars site. I've assumed no targeted happy hour play.

$75 rake pcm
FTP Silver: 15% (10% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Bronzestar: 9-17% (depending on whether first year or continuing)

=> Close, but FTP likely marginally better

$125 rake pcm
FTP Silver: 15% (10% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Silverstar: 16-21%

=> PS likely better

$150 rake pcm
FTP Gold: 20% (15% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Silverstar: 16-21%

=> Too close to call

$300 rake pcm
FTP Platinum: 25% (20% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Silverstar: 16-21%

=> FTP better

$500 rake pcm
FTP Platinum: 25% (20% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Goldstar: 21-26%

=> Too close to call

$750 rake pcm
FTP Diamond: 30% (25% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Goldstar: 21-26%

=> FTP better

$1250 rake pcm
FTP Diamond: 30% (25% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Platinumstar: 23-31% pcm

=> Too close to call

$1390 rake pcm
FTP Diamond: 30% (25% rakeback + 5% points)
PS Supernova: 31-38%

=> PS better

Effectively, Edge is competitive upto Supernova level, where Stars quickly becomes massively better. It's clear that FTP isn't intended to draw any of that traffic away, but instead will be focussed on more recreational players. Note that I haven't taken into account the rake level here; if I did so, I think realistically you then have to look at game quality (fish vs regs) as it's overall winrates that matter in the end. This is intended only to look at the proportion of rake paid which is returned to the player.