Opcenito pitanje vezano uz Independant Chip Model

Citam tekst koji objasnjava ICM i nikako si ne mogu posloziti jednu stvar, pa bi vas zamolio za pomoc.

Tekst je s ovog linka: http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitandgo/ … 20ICM.html, ali zbog lakseg snalazenja, pejstat cu dio koji me muci.

Prvi dio (koji mi je jasan):

Lets create a hypothetical situation where there is a $100 prize pool, 1000 chips to start and we now have 4 players at the bubble with 2500 chips each and the standard 50% for 1st, 30% for 2nd 20% for 3rd payout structure - we will ignore blinds for now to keep the numbers simple.

Prize pool equity is easy to work out here, each player is the same with a $25 stake. Now we see 2 players go all-in and player 1 bust out. Player 2 now has 5000 chips, with 3 and 4 unchanged on 2500 chips.

Our question is, how does the prize pool equity look now?

After all - 1st prize is $50, but with 3 players still in the game it is not realistic to assume player 2 will always take 1st place here! Using a basic ICM calculator we can find out exactly what the equity is for each of the 3 players.

Player 2: 5000 Chips - $38.33c Equity

Player 3: 2500 Chips - $30.83c Equity

Player 4: 2500 Chips - $30.83c Equity

Note that player 2's equity increased from $25 to $38.33c here - an increase of $13.33. However, in order to gain this extra equity this player had to risk the $25 stake he already had, a risk of $25 to gain $13.33. In simple terms this player was laying equity odds of 2-to-1 against himself at the bubble of a SNG tournament. We should also note that the players who were not in the hand have each gained a significant $5.83c in equity!

Here is the key to understanding and using ICM to shape your SNG Bubble Strategy - since your risk will always be bigger than your gain you need to have a huge edge against an opponent to 'correctly' get involved in a big pot. We discuss how to apply ICM logic to your decision making below.

Drugi dio:

Continuing the above example, let us look at a situation where it makes mathematical sense to fold the 'best hand' at the bubble.

You have Ace-Ten, and based on an assessment of the entire range of hands your opponent may have pushed all-in with you assess yourself as 60% favorite against their range. With equal stacks as above you are risking $25 to win $13.33 - is 60% favorite enough here??

Again we can calculate the average win / loss using an ICM Calculator - we recommend SNG WIZ for all of these calculations.

So after 100 hands....

    60 Times you win and have $36 equity 60*36 = $2160
    40 Times you lose and have $0 equity.40*0 = $0

So at the end of 100 tries you have $2160/100 or $21.6 in equity - the play costs you $2.40c each time you make it when compared to folding!!! Let me ask a question - is your ROI above 24%??

Ono sto mi nikako nije jasno je - zasto je u boldanom djelu napisao da imamo 36$ equity kad je prije napisao da ako se poduplamo imamo 38,33$ equity. Kako je dosao do toga da nas svaki taj potez dugorocno kosta 2,40$, tj. da nam foldanje donosi 2,40$? I otkud mu ROI od 24%?

Imalo bi mi logike kad bi racunica bila ovakva

So after 100 hands....

    60 Times you win and have $38,33 equity 60*38,33 = $2299,8
    40 Times you lose and have $0 equity.40*0 = $0

So at the end of 100 tries you have $2299,8/100 or $22.99 in equity - the play costs you $2.01c each time you make it when compared to folding!!! Let me ask a question - is your ROI above???

Moze li netko molim vas objasniti gdje grijesim?

Zadnji popravljao Manchinator (08-05-2013 15:10:16)