Tema: odds

ako mi netko moze objasniti koje su mi sanse ovdje nakon flopa da osvojim pot.
u trenutku sam pomislio da je ovo profitabilna igra s obzirom koliko je $ bilo u potu. jebiga ponjelo me  big_smile
nakon tog sam shvatio da nije.
pa me zanima koliko je ovo bilo EV-. jos uvijek sam los sa pot oddsima.

znaci cisto matematicki analiza ovog mog all in-a.

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PokerStars, No-Limit Hold'em Ring
Small Blind: $0.10
Big Blind: $0.25

BTN ($41.53)
SB ($30.05)
BB ($31.73)
UTG ($33.68)
MP (money_tra1n) ($25.35)
CO ($26.71)

Dealt to MP (money_tra1n)
http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/6S.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/6D.png

Preflop: (Pot is: $0.35)

UTG folds, MP (money_tra1n) raises to $0.88, CO raises to $2.25, BTN folds, SB calls $2.15, BB folds, MP (money_tra1n) calls $1.37

Flop: (Pot is $7, 3 players)

http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/4D.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/7C.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/5C.png
SB bets $4, MP (money_tra1n) calls $4, CO raises to $24.46 (All-In), SB folds, MP (money_tra1n) calls $19.1 (All-In),

Turn: (Pot is $57.2, 2 players, 1 all-in)

http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/4D.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/7C.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/5C.png    http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/JC.png

River: (Pot is $57.2, 2 players, 1 all-in)

http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/4D.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/7C.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/5C.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/JC.png   http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/KD.png

Showdown:
MP (money_tra1n) shows
http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/6S.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/6D.png
(One Pair, Sixes)

CO shows
http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/QD.png http://hr.pokerpro.cc/forum/extensions/hand_history_converter/HandHistoryConverter/images/QH.png
(One Pair, Queens)

                                                                     
Total Pot: $57.2 | Rake: $2

Winners:
CO wins $55.2

Zadnji popravljao whitewalk3r (12-02-2012 14:20:33)

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Re: odds

Imaš oko 30% eq odokativno, a odokativno bi ovdje s obzirom na pot trebo imat barem 45%+ equitya da bi ti call bio isplativ... Ovih 30% imaš ako villaina stavimo na 44/55/77+/AcKc/AcQc/AcJc/AcTc i eventualno 68s al unlikely da ce to ikad imat...

Fold flop, ne bi callao ni ovaj bet od 4$... Play je loš, bolje onda zgurat nakon ovog beta od SB-a jer imaš fold equity, ali najbolje je i najispravnije FOLDAT flop i miran si IMO dosta lagan fold...

Zadnji popravljao Mrtvi Jazavac (12-02-2012 14:34:25)

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Re: odds

Sto se tice oddsa, moras platit 18$ za pot od 55$ sto znaci da moras bit dobar u 32% slucajeva da bi call bio break even tj vise od 32% da bude +EV, ti vs overpara imas 40% eq sto bi znacilo da je call +EV i zarađujes cca 4$ kad callas

Ali to ne znaci da je tvoj line +EV.. da povucem paralelu i objasnim zasto, recimo da pf sa 72o 100bb deep raisas do 80bb i netko poslje tebe gurne all-in, za call moras imat vise od 10% eq a ti vs AA imas 11%, jos ako u villanov range ubacimo AK, KQ i sl imat ces i 25% eq sto bi znacilo da je call jako isplativ.. ali milsim da je svima jasno da raisat 72o do 80bb je sve samo ne isplativo
Odnosno da se vratim na tvoj hand, callat donk bet u 3betanom potu sa OESD na tt flopu i sa pfr iza tebe je bacanje love

when you feel like quitting think about why you started..
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